Firearms market analysis
The firearms market in Poland, in Europe and globally is going through rapid structural change, driven by geopolitical, social and regulatory factors. The war in Ukraine, higher defence spending by NATO countries, the rebuilding of ammunition stockpiles and growing interest in civilian shooting have made the entire defence sector and the civilian firearms market much more important.
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See the scan catalogueGlobally, the arms sector remains one of the most strategic parts of the world economy. In recent years, both military spending and interest in civilian gun ownership have grown in many regions of the world.
Rising geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, great-power rivalry and the build-up of defence capabilities by NATO and Asian countries are sustaining high demand for armaments. The rise in orders for ammunition, small arms, air defence systems and equipment for land forces is particularly visible.
The global arms trade is still dominated by the United States, France, Russia, China and Germany, but manufacturers from Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey and South Korea are playing an increasingly important role. At the same time, the civilian segment, which covers sporting and collector firearms and firearms for personal protection, is growing in importance.
01
How much is the firearms market in Europe worth?
The total economic value of the small arms sector in Europe is estimated at around EUR 180 bn a year, almost 1% of the GDP of the European countries analysed.
The European small arms market is one of the largest and most developed in the world. It covers the manufacture of firearms and ammunition, retail, shooting ranges, hunting and a broad ecosystem of services and suppliers related to sport, recreational and defensive shooting.
The total economic value of this sector in Europe is estimated at around EUR 180 bn a year, which corresponds to almost 1% of the GDP of the European countries analysed. The industry employs more than 1.12 m people, while the civilian firearms and ammunition manufacturing segment alone generates around EUR 12 bn in revenue a year and employs around 80 thousand workers.
The ammunition market is growing particularly fast. The value of the European military and civilian ammunition market rose to USD 11.78 bn in 2025, and forecasts point to USD 13.9 bn in 2026 and more than USD 32 bn by 2031. This means a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 18%. The main growth driver remains the rebuilding of national ammunition stockpiles after years of limited investment, together with increased orders linked to the modernisation of European countries' armed forces.
Germany remains the leader of the European ammunition market, accounting for around 34% of the total market value. France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which significantly increased their defence spending after 2022, also play an important role.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total economic value of the small arms sector in Europe (per year) | around EUR 180 bn |
| Share of GDP of the European countries analysed | almost 1% |
| Employment in the industry | more than 1.12 m people |
| Revenue of civilian firearms and ammunition manufacturing (per year) | around EUR 12 bn |
| Employment in civilian firearms and ammunition manufacturing | around 80 thousand workers |
| Value of the European military and civilian ammunition market, 2025 | USD 11.78 bn |
| Ammunition market value forecast, 2026 | USD 13.9 bn |
| Ammunition market value forecast, 2031 | more than USD 32 bn |
| Compound annual growth rate of the ammunition market (CAGR) | more than 18% |
| Germany's share of the European ammunition market value | around 34% |
02
How is the firearms market in Poland developing?
Poland is one of the fastest-growing firearms markets in Europe, and in the record year of 2024 exports of arms and ammunition from Poland reached EUR 3.2 bn.
Poland is currently one of the fastest-growing firearms markets in Europe. Both the military sector and the civilian market are growing rapidly.
In international trade, Poland remains a significant importer of armaments as it carries out large-scale programmes to modernise its armed forces. According to forecasts, the value of arms imports is set to rise from around USD 638 m in 2023 to USD 647 m in 2028. At the same time, arms exports are growing faster, from USD 372 m in 2023 to a forecast USD 462 m in 2028.
| Flow | 2023 (USD m) | 2028, forecast (USD m) |
|---|---|---|
| Arms imports | 638 | 647 |
| Arms exports | 372 | 462 |
Foreign trade data, however, point to a clear correction after the record year of 2024. In that year, exports of arms and ammunition from Poland reached EUR 3.2 bn, mainly due to logistical and military support for Ukraine. In 2025 and early 2026, exports fell by around 44%, mainly because supply channels normalised and some one-off contracts related to the armed conflict were completed. An even sharper decline was recorded on the import side: in the first quarter of 2026, the value of imported arms and ammunition was 77% lower than a year earlier, mainly because of changes in military equipment delivery schedules.
03
How many firearms licences are there in Poland?
According to the National Police Headquarters, at the end of 2025 there were 411,769 valid firearms licences in Poland, and the number of registered firearms exceeded 1.03 m.
Civilian firearms remain the fastest-growing segment of the Polish market. According to data from the National Police Headquarters (Komenda Główna Policji), at the end of 2025 there were 411,769 valid firearms licences. This is an increase of more than 113% compared with 2015, when the figure was just under 193 thousand.
The number of registered firearms is rising at the same time. At the end of 2025, it exceeded 1.03 m, compared with just under 588 thousand five years earlier. This means an increase of around 450 thousand firearms in only five years.
Notably, the number of firearms is growing faster than the number of licence holders. The average number of firearms per licence remains at around 2.5, which reflects the growing professionalisation of the market and the increasing activity of existing gun owners.
Show chart data as a table
| Year | Licences issued | Registered firearms | Annual net increase in registered firearms |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 234,916 | 587,853 | – |
| 2021 | 252,299 | 658,379 | +70,526 |
| 2022 | 286,751 | 760,218 | +101,839 |
| 2023 | 323,983 | 843,755 | +83,537 |
| 2024 | 367,411 | 930,121 | +86,366 |
| 2025 | 411,769 | 1,037,778 | +107,657 |
04
Why are collector firearms licences growing in Poland?
In 2025, more than 21 thousand new collector licences were issued, mainly because a collector licence is relatively easier to obtain than a sport licence.
Collecting remains the fastest-growing segment of the market. In 2025, more than 21 thousand new collector licences were issued, and the number of active licences in this category rose by more than 22% year on year.
This segment is growing mainly because a collector licence is relatively easier to obtain than a sport licence. In practice, for many people the collector licence has become a legal way to acquire modern semi-automatic firearms, not just historical pieces.
This change has affected the structure of retail sales, increasing demand for modern pistols, sporting carbines and firearms used for recreational shooting.
05
How is sport shooting developing in Poland?
In 2025, the number of active sport licences increased by more than 17 thousand, driven by a growing number of shooting ranges, more competitions and increasing availability of training.
Sport shooting remains the market's second pillar. In 2025, the number of active sport licences increased by more than 17 thousand, which shows that it remains highly popular.
The development of the segment is driven mainly by:
Growth may also be boosted by a change introduced in May 2026: Polish Sport Shooting Association (Polski Związek Strzelectwa Sportowego) documents are now available in the mObywatel app (the government's digital ID app). This makes it easier for competitors and clubs to manage their documents.
Show chart data as a table
| Licence purpose | Number of licences |
|---|---|
| collector | 21071 |
| sport | 17601 |
| personal protection | 7254 |
| hunting | 3875 |
| other | 1448 |
| total | 50,709 |
06
What is the outlook for the firearms market in Poland?
The outlook for the firearms market in Poland and Europe remains favourable. In the coming years, further increases in defence spending by European countries, an expansion of the ammunition industry's production capacity and continued high interest in civilian firearms are expected.
In Poland, the key growth drivers will remain:
As a result, Poland is strengthening its position as one of the fastest-growing civilian and military firearms markets in Central and Eastern Europe. The sector as a whole continues to benefit from long-term changes in geopolitics and international security.
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Source: MarketHub, "Firearms market analysis", markethub.pl, 06.2026