Cereal products market analysis in Poland
Poland is one of the largest cereal producers in the European Union and the world's largest producer of triticale. Our market analysis showed that in 2020 Poland ranked 3rd in the EU for cereal harvests, after France and Germany.
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See the scan catalogueCereal products are strategically important for the global economy, and for Poland too. They are used in food and also in distilling, brewing and milling. In addition, they are increasingly used in industry and in the energy and pharmaceutical sectors.
Cereals can be divided by type of grain into milling (food) cereals and feed cereals. Milling cereals are used to make bread, beer, flour, groats and vodka. Feed cereals are used for animal feed and include maize, barley and oats, among others.
In this market analysis we examine how the cereal products industry in Poland is developing, including cereal harvests and prices, as well as cultivated area.
01
How large are cereal harvests in Poland?
According to estimates by Statistics Poland (GUS), in 2020 total cereal harvests in Poland amounted to 33.5 m tonnes (16% more than a year earlier). This put Poland 3rd among cereal producers in the European Union.
Production of winter wheat amounted to 10.3 m tonnes, 8% more than in the previous year. Spring wheat reached 1.8 m tonnes, which is 20% more. Triticale harvests were much larger than in the previous year. They rose by 13% from 4.6 to 5.2 m tonnes, placing Poland first in the world. Production of winter barley amounted to 1.1 m tonnes. As in previous years, this was less than half the production of spring barley, at 2.7 m tonnes. Oat harvests amounted to 1.6 m tonnes.
| Cereal | Harvest (m tonnes) | Growth y/y (%) |
|---|---|---|
| total cereals | 33.5 | 16 |
| winter wheat | 10.3 | 8 |
| spring wheat | 1.8 | 20 |
| triticale (previous year: 4.6 m tonnes) | 5.2 | 13 |
| winter barley | 1.1 | – |
| spring barley | 2.7 | – |
| oats | 1.6 | – |
02
What is the cultivated area in Poland?
Our analysis of the cereal products market showed that the cultivated area in Poland in 2019 amounted to 7,891.4 thousand ha. This is more than in 2010–2018, when the figure was 7.5–7.8 m ha. An increase in sown area can be seen for every type of cereal. For wheat, the area was approx. 2.5 m ha, an increase of approx. 1% on the previous year. For cereal mixtures, the cultivated area grew by almost 7% (1.0 m ha). For rye, the cultivated area increased by 4%. Rapeseed and turnip rape covered 0.9 m ha (up 4%), and oats 0.5 m ha (up 8%). Only the sown area of barley declined, by 1%.
| Crop | Area | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| total cultivated area | 7,891.4 thousand ha | – |
| wheat | approx. 2.5 m ha | approx. 1% |
| cereal mixtures | 1.0 m ha | almost 7% |
| rye | – | 4% |
| rapeseed and turnip rape | 0.9 m ha | 4% |
| oats | 0.5 m ha | 8% |
| barley | – | down 1% |
03
How much do cereals cost in Poland?
According to ZSRIR data, in 2021 feed wheat cost PLN 976/t, milling wheat PLN 962/t and milling oats PLN 685/t.
According to data published by the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR, Zintegrowany System Rolniczej Informacji Rynkowej), the prices of individual cereals in 2021 were as follows:
| Cereal | Price (PLN/t) |
|---|---|
| milling wheat | 962 |
| feed wheat | 976 |
| milling rye | 706 |
| feed barley | 827 |
| milling oats | 685 |
| feed triticale | 832 |
The most expensive of the cereals listed above is wheat, both feed and milling.
04
How did COVID-19 affect the cereal products market in Poland?
The COVID-19 pandemic increased demand for long-life food, so pasta production rose by 14.3% in 2020, while demand for fresh bread fell.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on consumer behaviour. Demand for long-life food products contributed to an increase in the production of pasta. In 2020, production rose by 14.3% compared with the same period in 2019. Production of groats also increased, from 1.7 thousand tonnes in March 2019 to 3.6 thousand tonnes in March 2020. At the same time, demand for fresh bread fell, from 90 thousand tonnes in 2019 to 67 thousand tonnes in April and 71.4 thousand tonnes in May 2020. During the turbulence caused by the pandemic, flour production increased by 4.6%, which is more than in the previous year.
| Product | Before the pandemic (2019) | During the pandemic (2020) |
|---|---|---|
| pasta – production | – | up 14.3% y/y |
| groats – production | 1.7 thousand tonnes (March 2019) | 3.6 thousand tonnes (March 2020) |
| fresh bread – demand | 90 thousand tonnes | 67 thousand tonnes (April), 71.4 thousand tonnes (May) |
| flour – production | – | up 4.6% |
Author: Dominika Będkowska
Sources:
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Source: MarketHub, "Cereal products market analysis in Poland", markethub.pl, 11.2021