Global steel market analysis
Steel is the core material for construction, automotive, machinery and energy. According to the World Steel Association (worldsteel), the world produced 1,849 m tonnes of crude steel in 2025, 2.0% less than a year earlier. More than half of it came from China. This brief brings together the latest data on production, demand, the largest producers and the 2026–2027 outlook. It also explains what CBAM and the new EU import quotas mean for companies buying steel in or from Poland.
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How fast is the global steel market growing?
According to worldsteel, global steel demand will be 1,722 m tonnes in 2026, the same as in 2025, and will grow by 1.7% to 1,752 m tonnes in 2027.
The steel market is growing more slowly than in the previous decade. The reason is China, which uses about half of the world’s steel. Chinese demand fell by 7.1% in 2025, and worldsteel forecasts further declines of 2.0% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027.
Outside China, demand is growing: by 1.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. India and the ASEAN countries are growing fastest, and Europe is expected to return to growth in 2027.
Production lags behind demand. In 2025 the world produced 1,849 m tonnes of crude steel, 2.0% less than in 2024 (1,887 m tonnes). China produced 960.8 m tonnes, down 4.4% on the previous year.
Analysts usually segment the steel market in three ways:
1. End user: construction, machinery, transport, metal products and others.
2. Product type: flat and long steel.
3. Region: Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, the Middle East and Africa, South America.
02
How much steel does Poland produce?
According to worldsteel, Poland produced 7.2 m tonnes of crude steel in 2025 and ranked 25th in the world. It used 13.3 m tonnes of finished steel products, which makes it the world’s 7th-largest net importer of steel.
Poland’s steel production has been below domestic consumption for years. In 2025 it was 7.2 m tonnes, up from 7.1 m tonnes in 2024. About 55% of Polish steel is made from scrap in electric arc furnaces and 45% in the blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace route (worldsteel, 2026).
Apparent consumption of finished steel products in Poland was 13.3 m tonnes in 2025, or 349 kg per person. It peaked in 2021 (15.3 m tonnes) and bottomed out in 2023 (11.8 m tonnes).
| Year | Apparent use (m t) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 15.3 |
| 2022 | 13.2 |
| 2023 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 13.0 |
| 2025 | 13.3 |
Imports fill the gap. In 2025 Poland imported 12.6 m tonnes of steel (12th in the world, including intra-EU trade). Net imports were 8.0 m tonnes, the 7th-highest in the world. According to the Polish Union of Steel Distributors (PUDS), imports covered 82% of apparent consumption of finished products in January–August 2024: 95% for flat products and 57% for long products.
More on Polish steelworks: Metallurgical industry analysis in Poland.
03
Who produces steel in Poland?
Poland’s largest steel producer is ArcelorMittal Poland, which has almost half of the country’s production capacity. Most of the rest comes from electric arc furnace mills, including CMC Poland in Zawiercie, Celsa Huta Ostrowiec and the Cognor group.
ArcelorMittal Poland has plants in Dąbrowa Górnicza, Kraków, Sosnowiec, Świętochłowice and Chorzów, plus a coke plant in Zdzieszowice. It employs about 9,000 people. Poland’s only operating integrated blast furnace steelworks is in Dąbrowa Górnicza. Blast furnace No. 3 was idled in September 2025. It restarted after a reline on 28 April 2026.
Electric arc furnace mills melt scrap and mainly make long products: rebar, wire rod and sections. Poland imports a large share of its flat products, such as plate and strip.
In December 2025 the Polish Ministry of National Defence bought the Huta Częstochowa plate mill for PLN 253.8 m. The mill is to produce heavy plate, including for the defence industry.
For buyers: if you source steel products from Poland, most long products are made locally from scrap, while a large share of flat products sold by Polish distributors is imported. Raw materials for Polish steelworks are covered in Metal mining market analysis in Poland.
04
What is global demand for steel?
According to worldsteel, global steel demand was 1,723.8 m tonnes in 2025, 1.8% less than in 2024, mainly because of a 7.1% fall in China.
China used 796 m tonnes of steel in 2025, or 46% of global demand. That is still the most in the world, but the Chinese market is shrinking because of the housing crisis.
India is the second-largest market: it used 159.9 m tonnes of steel in 2025, 8.1% more than a year earlier. Its demand is expected to grow by about 8% a year in 2026 and 2027.
In the EU and the UK, demand rose by 5.3% to 146.7 m tonnes in 2025. According to worldsteel, part of this growth was stockbuilding ahead of CBAM in 2026. EUROFER, which covers the EU only, reports apparent consumption of 134 m tonnes in 2025, up 4.5% on the previous year. That is still about 11 m tonnes below 2019.
| Region | Demand 2025 (m t) | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| World | 1,723.8 | −1.8% |
| China | 796.0 | −7.1% |
| India | 159.9 | +8.1% |
| EU27 + UK | 146.7 | +5.3% |
05
Who is the largest steel producer in the world?
In 2025 the largest steel producer was China Baowu Group (124.8 m tonnes), and among countries China, which produced 960.8 m tonnes of crude steel.
ArcelorMittal is second among companies (63.4 m tonnes); it also owns Poland’s largest steel producer. Nippon Steel is third (57.8 m tonnes, including U.S. Steel, acquired in 2025). Six of the top ten companies are Chinese.
| Producer | Production (m t) |
|---|---|
| China Baowu Group | 124.76 |
| ArcelorMittal | 63.43 |
| Nippon Steel Corporation | 57.78 |
| Ansteel Group | 57.61 |
| HBIS Group | 42.49 |
| Shagang Group | 39.10 |
| Jianlong Group | 38.02 |
| POSCO Holdings | 37.36 |
| Delong Steel | 32.03 |
| Tata Steel Group | 30.46 |
Among countries, China is followed by India (164.9 m tonnes), the USA (81.9 m tonnes) and Japan (80.7 m tonnes). Germany is Europe’s largest producer (34.1 m tonnes), followed by Italy (20.7 m tonnes) and France (9.9 m tonnes). Poland ranks 25th with 7.2 m tonnes.
| Country | Production (m t) |
|---|---|
| China | 960.8 |
| India | 164.9 |
| USA | 81.9 |
| Japan | 80.7 |
| Germany | 34.1 |
| Italy | 20.7 |
| France | 9.9 |
| Poland (25th) | 7.2 |
06
How will CBAM and EU import quotas affect the steel market?
Since 2026, importers of steel from outside the EU have paid for CO₂ emissions under CBAM, and since 1 July 2026 the EU has cut duty-free steel import quotas by about 47% and imposed a 50% duty on imports above quota.
CBAM. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism covers iron and steel. Its definitive phase started on 1 January 2026, so importers now pay for the emissions embedded in the goods. The obligation applies to companies importing more than 50 tonnes of such goods a year. CBAM certificates go on sale on 1 February 2027. The declaration for 2026 must be filed, and certificates surrendered, by 30 September 2027.
The certificate price follows the average EU ETS allowance price. In 2026 it was €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ in Q1, €75.28 in Q2 and €82.32 in Q3. The burden rises gradually until 2034, as EU producers lose their free emission allowances.
New import quotas. Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 has applied since 1 July 2026. It replaced the expired 2019 safeguard measures and brings three changes:
1. Duty-free quotas are about 47% smaller (about 18.3 m tonnes a year in total).
2. Imports above quota pay a 50% duty.
3. Importers must show where the steel was melted and poured.
What this means for the market. Imports are no longer a cheap top-up to EU production. According to EUROFER, imports covered 30% of EU steel consumption in 2025, and a record 37% in Q4 2025. In Q1 2026 the share fell to 23%, as buyers had built up stocks before CBAM.
For non-EU suppliers selling to Poland: expect Polish buyers to ask for melt-and-pour evidence and emissions data, and to price the CBAM cost into contracts.
07
What is green steel and when will it reach the market?
Green steel is steel made without fossil fuels, usually by reducing iron ore with hydrogen from renewable power and melting it in an electric furnace. The first deliveries, from the HYBRIT project in 2021, were pilot volumes, and the first large plant of this type, Stegra in Sweden, has no start-up date yet (as of October 2026).
The technology was developed by HYBRIT, a project set up in 2016 by the Swedish companies SSAB, LKAB and Vattenfall. In August 2021 SSAB delivered the first steel made this way. Volvo Group was the first customer.
The most advanced industrial project is run by the Swedish company Stegra (called H2 Green Steel until September 2024). Its plant in Boden is to produce 2.5 m tonnes of steel a year at first. In January 2024 the company raised financing of almost €6.5 bn for the build. In June 2026 it raised another €1.4 bn, but the timeline is under review. In autumn 2026 Stegra said costs would be significantly higher and more capital would be needed. A new CEO takes over on 1 November 2026.
Demand for green steel comes mainly from large buyers in automotive, construction and energy. Some of them have committed to buying low-emission steel through the First Movers Coalition and the Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative. CBAM and the phase-out of free EU ETS allowances widen the cost gap between high- and low-emission steel.
08
What is the outlook for the global steel market?
According to worldsteel, global steel demand will not grow in 2026 and will rise by 1.7% in 2027. India (about 8% a year) and the ASEAN countries are expected to grow fastest, and demand in the EU and the UK is expected to return to growth in 2027 (+3.1%).
worldsteel’s October 2026 outlook expects declines in China to offset growth in the rest of the world. Excluding China, demand will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a 9.2% fall in 2026 and a 7.8% rebound in 2027.
| Region | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World | −0.1% | +1.7% |
| World excl. China | +1.5% | +4.0% |
| China | −2.0% | −1.0% |
| India | +7.9% | +8.0% |
| ASEAN-5 | +5.2% | +3.2% |
| MENA | −9.2% | +7.8% |
| EU27 + UK | −0.3% | +3.1% |
For the EU, EUROFER forecasts apparent steel consumption of 135 m tonnes in 2026 (+0.1%) and 138 m tonnes in 2027 (+2.3%). Even in 2027 this will be about 7 m tonnes below 2019. EU steelworks ran at 65% of capacity in 2025 and produced 125.8 m tonnes of crude steel, the lowest on record.
MarketHub expert comment
“For a company that buys or processes steel in Poland, EU policy now matters more than global volumes. Poland imports most of the flat products it uses, and CBAM and the new quotas are raising the cost of steel from outside the EU. Buyers should check now whether their suppliers can show the country of melt and emissions data, and budget for CBAM certificates on 2026 imports, which must be settled by September 2027.”
Author: Barbara Wargocka · Updated by: Katarzyna Kucia, 17 October 2026
Sources:
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Source: MarketHub, “Global steel market analysis”, markethub.pl, updated 10.2026